No way oracle – Clear future prognoses with the Delphi method
Futurology is not a look into the glass ball. It can be traced back to well-founded scientific research. The Delphi method, a qualitative technique for recording future developments, is often used. Global Topspeaker and 2b AHEAD ThinkTank CEO Jan Berger shows in his lecture how the trend studies of Germany’s leading institute for the future emerge. In addition, he will give fascinating insights into the research work there.
In addition, the experienced futurologist explains how companies can use the Delphi method to gain insights into the direction their industry will take in the coming years and what impact certain innovations will have on them. This can be used to derive strategies with which one’s own processes and structures can be redesigned for the future. With this knowledge, companies are prepared early and sustainably for future changes in competition.
Keynote speaker Jan Berger makes it clear in his lecture: “The future forecasts of 2b AHEAD ThinkTank are not just fantasy creations. The Big Picture on developments in business and society are based on research methods that have been recognized for many year and deliver concrete results. Above all the Delphi method offers thereby amazing possibilities. It is not an oracle from Greek mythology, but an extensive, multi-stage survey of selected experts, innovative minds and industry experts who independently give their assessments. Their judgements on technological and market-specific developments are systematically recorded and compared in order to evaluate them precisely in the subsequent analysis. The complexity of the Delphi method avoids misjudgements. Instead, the results are particularly honest and meaningful.
This is how the 2b AHEAD ThinkTank meets its knowledge on the future and how solutions for future problems can already be found now. This is because the Delphi method also provides information about the impending consequences and effects of certain innovations. In his lecture, the Global Topspeaker and trend researcher will explain how companies make us of these findings. Thus they have the chance to develop future strategies as well as adapt their business models, products and services to the forthcoming changes. Instead of relying on any oracle slogans for the future of their company, they should work with the well-founded Delphi method.
Contents of the lecture:
- Research: How are future prognoses made?
- Industries: In which areas is the Delphi technique applied?
- Selection of experts: Who is suitable for the survey?
- Preparation: How do you create a concept and collect opinions?
- Strategies: What can be derived from the findings?